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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.